Shoreditch Plate
β± Cash Runway
68d
β 8 days vs last week
π Daily Revenue (7d avg)
Β£4,820
β 14% vs 30-day avg
π΄ Stress Risk Score
61/100
Elevated Β· Week 7 risk
π· Borrowing Capacity
Β£55K
90-day trading basis
90-Day Liquidity Forecast
AI PROJECTION
Current:
Β£9,600
Week 7 Low:
βΒ£22,800
W1W2W3W4W5W7W11W13
Actual
Forecast
BoE Rate Sensitivity β What if rates change?
Runway
68d
Cost Pressure
+3.8%
Week 7
βΒ£22.8K
Live Transactions
REAL-TIME
SumUp Card Machine β Lunch Service
Today Β· 14:32
+Β£3,840
Uber Eats Settlement
Today Β· 12:00
+Β£1,240
Brakes Bros β Weekly Food Order
Today Β· 09:00
βΒ£3,840
SumUp Card Machine β Weekend
Yesterday Β· 20:45
+Β£5,620
Shoreditch High St β Rent Feb 2026
1 Feb Β· 00:01
βΒ£8,500
Upcoming Events
FORECAST
W5 Β· 1 MAR
Staff Payroll
8 Employees
Β£18,200 β
W6 Β· 7 MAR
HMRC PAYE & NIC
Monthly obligation
Β£4,840 β
W6 Β· 8 MAR
Brakes Bros Invoice
Weekly food order
Β£4,100
W7 Β· 15 MARβ οΈ
Brakes Bros + Payroll Overlap
Deficit risk
Β£32,600
W10 Β· 5 APR
Quarter-End Recovery
Easter revenue boost
Β£42K β
Cash Conversion Cycle
CCC INTELLIGENCE
DSO + DIO β DPO
DSO
3d
Days Sales Outstanding
DIO
5d
Days Inventory Outstanding
DPO
28d
Days Payable Outstanding
CCC
β20d
Negative = Healthy β
CCC 30 days ago
β17d
β Improving trend
CCC 90 days ago
β14d
ββ Trend: improving
Sector Benchmark
β3d
Performing above avg
Cash at Risk from CCC
Β£8,400
Tied up in cycle
CapFlow Insight: Your CCC is β20 days β excellent
for a London restaurant. Card and delivery app settlement in 2β3
days combined with 28-day Brakes Bros terms means you hold
supplier cash for 20 days before paying. This has improved 6 days
over 90 days.
Watch: if Deliveroo/Uber Eats settlement delays increase to 5+
days (reported industry-wide Feb 2026), your CCC deteriorates
and Week 7 shortfall increases by Β£4,200.
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
LIVE FEED
BANK OF ENGLAND
Base Rate
5.25%
Held β Feb 2026 MPC
ONS Β· BOE
CPI Inflation
3.4%
β from 4.0% Oct 2025
ONS
Food PPI Input
+4.1%
β Jan 2026 β F&B pressure
FCA Β· FX
GBP / EUR
1.168
β 0.8% 30-day
BoE base rate at 5.25% adds estimated
Β£1,840 additional monthly financing cost.
Food PPI at +4.1% is compressing gross margins β ingredient
costs up approximately Β£680/week vs Q3 2025.
AI Recommendations
ACTION REQUIRED
β URGENT
Extend Brakes Bros Invoice β 14 Days β
Request 14-day extension on the Β£14,400 Brakes Bros
invoice (ref: BB-2026-0341). Your 18-month clean payment
history supports this. Eliminates 63% of projected
shortfall.
β View full action plan
β CONSIDER
Chase Corporate Catering Receivable
Β£6,800 in corporate catering receivables outstanding from
Deliveroo Business accounts (18β24 days). Escalate to
account manager for same-week settlement.
β +Β£6,800 Β· Closes 30% of Week 7 gap
β CONSIDER β CCC
Optimise Delivery App Settlement Timing
Your DPO is currently healthy at 28 days. Watch: if Brakes
Bros tighten terms below 21 days, your CCC deteriorates by
7 days and cash-at-risk increases by Β£12,400. Protect your
current terms proactively.
β CCC improvement Β· Long-term structural fix
Growth Intelligence
AI SIGNAL
Based on 90 days of transaction patterns Β· Shoreditch Plate
Combined Impact Estimate
+Β£9,340/week
If all 5 signals are acted on β combining Sunday
extension, rain promotions, Saturday brunch, Brakes
consolidation, and corporate catering.
These are AI-generated signals based on your Open Banking
transaction patterns. Actual results will vary. CapFlow
does not guarantee revenue outcomes.
Lender Intelligence Dashboard
β
Portfolio Health
78/100
β 4 pts vs last month
π Under Watch
6
Stress forecast 30β60d
π¨ Default Risk
2
Intervention recommended
π· Net Portfolio
Β£15.5M
6-month aggregate
Credit Assessment β Shoreditch Plate
APPROVE
82
CapFlow Score Β· LOW RISK
β
RECOMMENDED: APPROVE
Credit Facility: Β£55,000 Β· 90-day Open Banking verified Β· Live
POS data Β· No bank statement required.
Tenor
12 mo
Rate
8.5%
Monthly
Β£6,270
DSC Ratio
1.74Γ
β οΈ Week 7 stress event flagged. Covenant: lender notification if
cash drops below Β£15,000. CapFlow auto-alert within 24 hours.
Active Portfolio β Risk Snapshot + Trajectory
47 BORROWERS
| Business | Score | Trend | Runway | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shoreditch Plate
F&B RESTAURANT Β· LONDON E1
|
82 |
β3
|
68d | LOW |
|
Bloom & Wild Florist
RETAIL FLORIST Β· BRISTOL BS1
|
79 |
β4
|
84d | LOW |
|
Fletcher Precision Eng.
MANUFACTURING Β· BIRMINGHAM B2
|
63 |
β8
|
38d | WATCH |
|
James Okafor β Alterations
SOLE TRADER Β· TAILOR Β· PECKHAM SE15
|
71 |
β3
|
71d | LOW |
|
Chidi Okonkwo β Auto Repair
SOLE TRADER Β· MECHANIC Β· MUSHIN, LAGOS
|
58 |
β
|
62d | WATCH |
|
Lekki Fresh Mart
RETAIL Β· LEKKI PHASE 1, LAGOS π³π¬
|
71 |
β2
|
54d | LOW |
|
VI Logistics Ltd
LOGISTICS Β· VICTORIA ISLAND, LAGOS π³π¬
|
58 |
β9
|
31d | REVIEW |
|
Northgate Builders Ltd
CONSTRUCTION Β· LEEDS LS1
|
57 |
β11
|
29d | WATCH |
|
Hollowell Pharmacy
HEALTHCARE RETAIL Β· OXFORD OX1
|
86 |
β5
|
132d | LOW |
|
Stonebrook Print Co.
PRINT & PACKAGING Β· MANCHESTER M1
|
32 |
β19
|
9d | CRITICAL |
|
Greenleaf Organic Deli
F&B RETAIL Β· EDINBURGH EH1
|
74 |
β0
|
77d | LOW |
+ 40 more borrowers Β· Click any row to view full borrower
profile Β· Includes sole trader profiles Β· Trend = 90-day score
trajectory
Portfolio Macro Stress Simulator
LIVE IMPACT
BoE Base Rate Change
β200bp
+300bp
Base (5.25%)
CPI Inflation Change
β2%
+4%
Base (3.4%)
Wage Inflation (Payroll)
0%
+10%
No wage pressure
Supplier Cost Pressure
0%
+15%
No supplier pressure
Avg Score Impact
β
Newly At Risk
0
Runway Impact
β
Portfolio Risk
STABLE
Impact Per Business
| Business | Base Score | Stressed Score | Runway Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move any slider above to run stress scenario | ||||
Stress model: BoE FSR methodology Β· Rate sensitivity
calibrated per sector Β· Feb 2026
Sources: BoE FSR Β· Fed FSR Β· Feb 2026
β Traditional
βHistorical snapshot only
βMisses POS cash flow
βNo CCC visibility
βNo fraud signal
β
CapFlow AI
βReal-time live data
βForward-looking AI
βCCC intelligence
βHealth trajectory
31%
Reduction in misclassified credit decisions Β· Pilot 2025 Β·
n=142
Market Intelligence Layer
Aggregate capital flow signals across corridors, sectors, and markets β giving institutional investors, DFIs, and policymakers real-time intelligence on where capital is moving, why, and what comes next. Covers US, UK, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and intra-African corridors.
142
SMEs Tracked
10
Corridors Live
$20.9B
NG Remittances '24
Active Capital Flow Corridors
LIVE
πΊπΈ β π³π¬
USA β Nigeria
$11.2B annual Β· Diaspora remittances
β 22% YoY
LOW RISK
π¬π§ β π³π¬
UK β Nigeria
$4.2B annual Β· Diaspora + FDI
β 18% YoY
LOW RISK
πΊπΈ β π°πͺ
USA β Kenya
$780M annual Β· Tech FDI
β 27% YoY
LOW RISK
π³π¬ β π¬π
Nigeria β Ghana
$890M Β· Trade expansion
β 31% YoY
MONITOR Β· FX
π¬π§ β π°πͺ
UK β Kenya
$1.1B annual
β 9% YoY
LOW RISK
π³π¬ π³π¬
Nigeria Domestic
β¦1.56Q H1 2024
β Stress Β· CBN MPR 27.25%
ELEVATED
π‘ Aggregate Capital Flow Intelligence β Including US Corridors
AI SIGNAL
πΊπΈ USA
π³π¬ Nigeria
β 22%
π¬π§ UK
π³π¬ Nigeria
β 18%
πΊπΈ USA
π°πͺ Kenya
β 27%
π³π¬ Nigeria
π¬π Ghana
β 31%
π¬π§ UK
π°πͺ Kenya
β 9%
πΏπ¦ S. Africa
π W. Africa
β 14%
Sources: World Bank Β· CBN Β· BoE Β· Fed Β· IMF BOP Β· CapFlow
Aggregate Model Β· Feb 2026
FDI Flow Signals
FDI
Nigeria Inbound FDI$3.3B β
USβAfrica Tech FDI$2.1B β
Kenya FDI Pipeline$890M β
Africa FinTech Total$2.3B β
Remittance Intelligence
REMIT
Nigeria Total (2024)$20.9B β
US Diaspora Share$11.2B β
Avg Transfer Cost8.2% β
Mobile Money Share38% β
FX Stress Signals
FX
NGN/USD Volatility (30d)HIGH β
USD/NGN Rate1,587
GBP/USD TrendSTABLE β
KES/USD StabilitySTABLE
Intra-Africa Trade (AfCFTA)
TRADE
Intra-Africa Share15% (vs 60% Asia)
PAPSS Transactionsβ 340% YoY
AfCFTA Coverage54 countries
Gap vs Potential$400B+ β
Development Finance Institution Intelligence
DFI LAYER
CapFlow aggregates SME-level cash flow data with corridor-level
capital flow signals to produce sector intelligence for
institutional allocators β DFIs, pension funds, and sovereign
wealth funds making capital allocation decisions across US, UK,
and African markets.
| Sector / Corridor | Signal | Volume Trend | FX Risk | DFI Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USβNigeria Remittance Infrastructure | STRONG β | +22% YoY | MODERATE | HIGH β |
| Agritech β West Africa | STRONG β | +34% YoY | LOW | HIGH β |
| Mobile Money β E. Africa | STRONG β | +28% YoY | LOW | HIGH β |
| Manufacturing β Nigeria | MODERATE β | +8% YoY | HIGH FX | MEDIUM β |
| Energy β Nigeria | STRESS β | β4% YoY | CRITICAL | REVIEW β |
CapFlow Signal Report β Feb 2026: Based on
current corridor intelligence, CapFlow recommends overweighting
USβNigeria remittance infrastructure and East Africa mobile
money, while monitoring Nigeria Manufacturing FX exposure.
Rebalancing from Nigeria Energy to Kenya Tech FDI improves
projected corridor risk-adjusted return by an estimated 2.3
percentage points.
Early Warning System β Systemic Risk Signals
POLICYMAKER LAYER
When CapFlow detects stress patterns across hundreds of SMEs
simultaneously, it surfaces aggregate signals relevant to central
banks, regulators, and policymakers β providing granular,
real-time early warning data that top-down macroeconomic models
cannot capture.
NGN Liquidity Stress β 23% of Nigeria-corridor SMEs
Aggregate cash runway dropped from 91 days to 68 days over
30 days. Pattern consistent with FX transmission of CBN MPR
increases into import cost pressure. Potential systemic
tightening signal.
Fed Rate Sensitivity β US franchise operators showing cost
pressure
US QSR franchise operators in the CapFlow portfolio show
average 4.2% cost pressure increase following the last Fed
hold, driven by financing cost and food import sensitivity.
3 of 12 US borrowers now in Watch category.
PAPSS Adoption Accelerating β East Africa
PAPSS transaction volume in Kenya and Tanzania corridors
grew 340% YoY. USD correspondent banking dependency falling.
Cross-border settlement costs declining β positive
structural signal for intra-African trade capacity.
Anomaly Detection & Fraud Signal Layer
π§ Why This Layer Exists
A business can show strong POS revenue and order volumes β yet
cash may be exiting through inflated supplier invoices, ghost
payroll, or undisclosed related-party transfers. CapFlow
reconciles what the transaction data predicts should be
in the account against what Open Banking shows is
actually there β across every business in the lender
portfolio simultaneously.
2
Active Flags
5
Clear
Β£9,200
Unexplained Gap
91/100
Shoreditch Plate Score
Shoreditch Plate
β
CLEAR
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· BARCLAYS BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£9,600
CapFlow projectedΒ£9,600
Reconciliation gapΒ£0 β
30-day avg gapΒ£420 (0.4%)
Diversion riskNone detected
Reconciles cleanly. Fraud risk score: 91/100 (Low Risk).
Bloom & Wild Florist
β
CLEAR
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· LLOYDS BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£28,400
CapFlow projectedΒ£27,800
Reconciliation gap+Β£600 (2.1%) β
30-day avg gapΒ£280 (0.9%)
Diversion riskNone detected
Reconciles cleanly. Fraud risk score: 88/100 (Low Risk).
Hollowell Pharmacy
β
CLEAR
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· BARCLAYS BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£84,200
CapFlow projectedΒ£83,400
Reconciliation gap+Β£800 (0.9%) β
30-day avg gapΒ£340 (0.4%)
Diversion riskNone detected
Reconciles cleanly. Fraud risk score: 94/100 (Low Risk).
Fletcher Precision Eng.
β
CLEAR
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· HSBC BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£18,400
CapFlow projectedΒ£19,100
Reconciliation gapβΒ£700 (3.7%)
30-day avg gapΒ£480 (2.4%)
Diversion riskWithin normal range
Minor gap within tolerance. No action required. Score: 79/100.
Northgate Builders
β
CLEAR
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· NATWEST BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£12,100
CapFlow projectedΒ£13,200
Reconciliation gapβΒ£1,100 (8.3%)
PatternIrregular β under review
Diversion riskLOW-MODERATE
Gap at upper tolerance boundary. Monitor next 30 days. Score:
71/100.
Stonebrook Print Co.
β οΈ FLAG RAISED
FCA OPEN BANKING Β· SANTANDER BUSINESS Β· CONNECTED
Actual balance (live)Β£4,800
CapFlow projectedΒ£14,000
Reconciliation gapβΒ£9,200 (66%)
PatternRecurring month-end exits
Diversion riskELEVATED β
Lender alert raised. Investigate before any facility draw.
Score: 38/100.
Behavioural Anomaly Flags β Stonebrook Print Co.
2 ACTIVE
38
Stonebrook Print Co. β CRITICAL
2 behavioural anomalies flagged. Open Banking gap of Β£9,200
(66%). Lender review required before any further facility
draw.
β HIGH RISK
Recurring Month-End Cash Exit β Unidentified Payee
Β£3,200βΒ£4,100 transferred to "SB Media Consulting Ltd" on
the last working day of each month for 4 consecutive months.
Not listed as a known supplier in 90-day transaction
history. Pattern is consistent with related-party diversion
β registered director has a connected company of the same
name at Companies House.
β HIGH RISK
Revenue Decline β Cash Declining Faster Than Expected
Revenue has declined 34% over 90 days β CapFlow projected a
proportional cash decline of Β£6,400. Actual cash decline is
Β£14,800 β Β£8,400 more than the revenue decline explains. The
unaccounted difference aligns with the monthly SB Media
transfers plus an unexplained Β£1,100 ATM cash withdrawal
pattern beginning 6 weeks ago.
πWhat CapFlow Does β and Doesn't β Detect
βDetects unexplained gaps
between trading activity and actual bank balance
βFlags recurring transfers to
new or unrecognised payees
βIdentifies revenue-to-cash
divergence beyond normal variance
βCross-references payee names
against Companies House director data
βCapFlow is a
pre-compliance intelligence layer. Always run
standard KYC, AML and fraud screening in parallel. CapFlow
flags β it does not confirm.
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MacroShieldβ’ BETA
Global shock signals Β· Transmission modelling Β· Portfolio impact Β·
Historical pattern engine
Live signals Β· Updated 4 min ago
Active risk signals
6
β 2 since yesterday
Portfolio exposure
63%
Medium-high sensitivity
Businesses at risk
11 of 47
Across active scenarios
Highest shock type
Oil Supply Shock
Critical β act now
Signal confidence
84%
Historical accuracy
Global shock signal index
Transmission chain β
Oil supply shock
Historical precedents
Scenario impact modeller
Portfolio businesses at risk
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